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quarta-feira, 20 de maio de 2026

A dupla face da China: líder na transição verde esconde uma corrida às armas nucleares


A geopolítica do século XXI fixou o olhar na China sob o signo de uma profunda contradição. Aos olhos do mundo, Pequim assume-se orgulhosamente como a locomotiva incontestável da transição energética global, liderando a produção de painéis solares, turbinas eólicas e veículos elétricos. No entanto, por trás desta fachada de vanguarda ecológica e de um soft power meticulosamente desenhado para projetar a imagem de uma potência responsável, esconde-se uma realidade consideravelmente mais sombria e bélica: uma aposta sem precedentes na expansão do seu arsenal nuclear.

Durante décadas, o regime chinês manteve uma postura de dissuasão minimalista, assegurando ao plano internacional que o seu armamento atómico servia apenas como último recurso defensivo. Contudo, sob a liderança de Xi Jinping, a China iniciou uma aceleração histórica que quebrou este antigo equilíbrio. Campos de centenas de silos para mísseis balísticos intercontinentais surgiram nas zonas remotas do oeste do país, enquanto a nova "tríade nuclear" — capaz de projetar ogivas por terra, mar e ar — passou a ser exibida com pompa militar. Para lá dos mísseis de longo curso, Pequim investe agora fortemente em mísseis hipersónicos e de teatro de operações regional, armas de "capacidade dupla" que baralham as fronteiras entre o convencional e o nuclear, elevando drasticamente o risco de um erro de cálculo global.

Esta corrida ao armamento é alimentada por uma profunda paranoia estrutural face ao Ocidente e, em particular, aos Estados Unidos. Ao observar o tabuleiro internacional e o conflito na Ucrânia, os estrategas chineses retiraram uma lição clara: a ameaça nuclear russa funcionou como um escudo eficaz para paralisar a intervenção direta da NATO no terreno. É este mesmo manual que Pequim ambiciona replicar na Ásia Oriental. O objetivo desta musculação atómica não é necessariamente desencadear o Armagedon, mas sim construir uma barreira de medo tão robusta que desencoraje qualquer intervenção norte-americana ou dos seus aliados numa eventual invasão a Taiwan.

Paralelamente, a narrativa da transição verde e o investimento massivo na energia nuclear civil servem de cobertura perfeita. Enquanto o mundo aplaude os avanços tecnológicos chineses na descarbonização, o complexo militar-industrial do país absorve recursos e tecnologia de ponta para otimizar os seus vetores de destruição. O país que se vende ao exterior como o garante da sustentabilidade do planeta prepara-se, à porta fechada, para cenários de "guerra nuclear limitada", posicionando mísseis concebidos para paralisar bases inimigas no Pacífico sob uma lógica de retaliação imediata. Esta é a verdadeira distopia chinesa: um império que lidera a transição para um futuro verde com uma mão, enquanto com a outra afia as armas que têm o potencial de extinguir o amanhã.

O documentário divide-se em três partes: 

Parte 1: Do Programa Mínimo à Expansão Histórica
  • A Parada de Pequim: a China exibiu publicamente pela primeira vez a sua "tríade nuclear" completa, demonstrando uma capacidade consolidada de lançar armas nucleares por terra, mar e ar.
  • O Ritmo da Expansão: especialistas apontam que a China se encontra no meio de uma expansão nuclear histórica. O Pentágono projeta que o país alcance as 1.500 ogivas nucleares até 2035.
  • A Motivação de Xi Jinping: o líder chinês é movido pelo receio de um confronto inevitável com o Ocidente liderado pelos EUA. A sua estratégia baseia-se no realismo estrutural: demonstrar poder para forçar as potências ocidentais a abandonarem a política de contenção contra a China.
  • A Inspiração na Rússia: Xi Jinping destacou internamente que a Rússia tomou uma decisão correta após a Guerra Fria ao manter o seu grande arsenal nuclear, o que obriga os rivais a moderar as suas políticas.
  • Os Silos de Mísseis: investigadores descobriram, através de imagens de satélite, mais de 300 silos de mísseis balísticos intercontinentais (ICBM) em construção nas zonas remotas do oeste da China. Esta foi a forma mais rápida encontrada por Pequim para expandir o seu arsenal e demonstrar a sua capacidade aos EUA.
Parte 2: O Arsenal da Nova Tríade Nuclear
  • O Vetor Aéreo: a mais recente perna da tríade é o míssil balístico lançado pelo ar, conhecido como Jinglay 1 (JL-1).
  • O Vetor Marítimo e a Geografia: os novos submarinos nucleares chineses estão equipados com o míssil Juulang 3 (JL-3), com um alcance superior a 10.000 km. A China enfrenta restrições geográficas marítimas (a "primeira cadeia de ilhas"), onde os aliados dos EUA monitorizam as saídas para o oceano. É por isso que o Mar do Sul da China e a ilha de Hainan são cruciais para esconder os submarinos. O controlo sobre Taiwan daria à China acesso direto e indetetável ao Oceano Pacífico.
  • Mísseis de Teatro de Operações (Médio Alcance): o míssil DF-26 (apelidado de "Guam Killer") tem um alcance de 4.000 km e consegue atingir as forças dos EUA no Pacífico. Estes mísseis possuem "capacidade dupla", o que significa que podem transportar tanto ogivas convencionais como nucleares. Isto gera um perigo de incerteza em tempos de crise, pois os EUA podem confundir um ataque convencional com um ataque nuclear. O DF-17 é o primeiro sistema hipersónico da China, capaz de manobrar a altas velocidades para evitar as defesas antimísseis.
Parte 3: A Doutrina Nuclear e o Risco de Guerra
  • A Lição da Ucrânia: Pequim observou que as ameaças nucleares implícitas de Vladimir Putin resultaram em impedir que a NATO enviasse tropas para o terreno na Ucrânia. A China ambiciona ter a mesma capacidade de dissuasão para evitar que os EUA intervenham num cenário de invasão a Taiwan.
  • A Política de "Não Primeiro Uso" (No First Use): oficialmente, a China mantém a política de nunca ser a primeira a utilizar armas nucleares. Contudo, existem ambiguidades: analistas indicam que Pequim tem planos para ameaçar com o uso nuclear caso alvos estratégicos convencionais no seu território sejam atacados, argumentando que a política só é tecnicamente violada se as armas forem efetivamente disparadas.
  • Lançamento sob Ataque (Launch Under Attack): com a ajuda tecnológica da Rússia, a China está a desenvolver um sistema de alerta precoce para detetar mísseis inimigos. Isto permite adotar uma postura de disparar os mísseis de volta antes que os mísseis do adversário atinjam os silos chineses. O perigo reside no risco elevado de alarmes falsos e interpretações erradas durante uma crise.
  • Guerra Nuclear Limitada: o desenvolvimento de armas regionais mostra que a China está a preparar-se para a possibilidade de uma guerra nuclear limitada com os EUA. Os estrategistas chineses pensam em alvejar bases militares americanas na região (como em Guam, Japão ou Alasca) para aterrorizar os EUA e ganhar vantagem, sem provocar uma retaliação total que leve à destruição mútua global.

domingo, 28 de dezembro de 2025

A grinding, pivotal year ahead

Fonte


I’ve been thinking a lot about this over the past few days in part because the Trump administration did yet another indefensible thing—they shut down all work on five offshore wind farms off the eastern seaboard. As the Times put it, the move


essentially gutted the country’s nascent offshore wind industry in a sharp escalation of President Trump’s crusade against the renewable energy source.

The decision injected uncertainty into $25 billion worth of projects that were expected to power more than 2.5 million homes and businesses across the Eastern United States, according to Turn Forward, an offshore wind advocacy group. The five wind farms were projected together to create together about 10,000 jobs.

The administration said there were “national security” reasons for the shutdown that they couldn’t explain but that had something to do with radar. You are forgiven your skepticism about this rationale. Retired naval commander Kirk Lippold said the Department of Defense had fully vetted the projects, and added “ironically, these projects will actually benefit our national security by diversifying America’s energy supplies, providing much-needed reliable power for the grid and helping our economy.” If you want more on this aspect, check out Peter Gleick’s fine essay. Or maybe just look at a map of Asian wind installations, offshore and on; the Chinese coast, by Trumpian logic, is apparently the most vulnerable place on planet earth.



No, everyone knows that this decision, like so many in 2025, results from a combination of two obvious things. One is the president’s detestation of windpower, because you can see turbines from the 18th hole of his Turnberry golf course in Scotland, a sight he has described as “disgusting.” (By the way, it’s a prejudice he shares with his sidekick Bobby “Measles” Kennedy—here’s the letter some of us wrote to him 20 years ago next week pointing out that he was being an ass for trying to protect the view from his Cape Cod compound). The second thing, of course, is Trump’s efforts to pay off his fossil fuel donors—they gave him half a billion in campaign help, and they are now reaping the largest return on investment in recorded history.

But there’s a third reason too, I think, and one that reminds us of the politics inherent in all of this. For New England, New York, and Virginia those now-halted windfarms offer something like a first stab at energy independence. And that’s anathema to the fascist mind, which values centralization and control above all. California has already begun to escape that control—it has so much solar and wind energy that it could, if it had to, increasingly make do on its own (and the hydro-charged northwest as well). But the northeast is the other center of resistance to Trump’s ugly project; it’s currently tied to the end of the gas pipelines stretching back to the Gulf, and Trump et al are determined to keep it that way.

And for now there’s nothing we can do about it (except go to court, which actually worked when Trump tried to shut down one wind farm in the fall). Without control of either the House or Senate, Democrats have no way to stand up to even something as egregiously stupid as this windpower ban. Getting a majority in either chamber would not rein in the MAGA project, but it would allow questions to be publicly asked, and it would allow at least a budget fight about such venality. It’s nowhere near what we need, but it’s not nothing. And nothing is what we have right now, which is why the last year has been so hard—those of us who care about, say, science and economics (or justice) have had to stand there and take it, our hands essentially tied behind our backs.

We’ve done our best in the circumstances—the No Kings Day protests, for instance, have been crucial in sapping support for what seemed at first like a juggernaut. But the reason to drive down Trump’s popularity is to make it harder for him to win elections (and harder to rig elections—the refusal of the Indiana GOP to go along with the president’s redistricting plan this month was a good reminder that Trump at 38 percent approval is less effective than Trump at 55 percent).

The elections will, of course, be a hard fight. Hard because MAGA has all the advantages of incumbency (including an ever-more-compliant media—the fact that the White House now controls CBS is a particular blow to those of us old enough to remember Murrow and Cronkite). And hard because in many places the Democrats we will need to support won’t be precisely the champions we’d most like. Prepare for a lot of tap-dancing around “climate,” for instance—what we need to hope for is that these candidates are sensible enough at least to seize on the popularity of solar and windpower and make a decent argument for energy both cheap and clean. Some Mamdanis will emerge, and we’ll treasure them, but the basic job is straightforward: beat MAGA everywhere we can, hopefully with margins sufficient to start reorienting our hideous politics.

I’ll obviously keep covering the energy marvels appearing in the rest of the world—reporting on the ongoing sunpower revolution keeps me optimistic enough to stagger on. But I think my main job over the next ten months is to do all I can to help the elections on Nov. 3 come out the right way; I’ll be writing, and through Third Act I’ll be organizing (look for the next rounds of the Silver Wave tour). Those hoped-for victories are the necessary first step to preserving both some of our democracy and some of our climate system. And remember how good it felt to take home some preliminary wins last month in New York, New Jersey, Virginia. Wiping more of the smirk off the presidential mug is our potential reward—that and a future.

In other energy and climate news:

+As they shut down wind farms, America’s energy czars are pledging billions on a particularly absurd scheme: big gas pipelines in Alaska designed for an export LNG market that almost certainly won’t exist by the time they’re built. Lois Parshley has some fine reporting in Grist


The cost is staggering: Official estimates put it at $44 billion, though independent analysts suggest it could top $70 billion. Experts say it has required substantial government support to develop and will require “a mix of public and private capital to move forward.”

The pipeline’s backers are already eyeing additional federal support, including $30 billion in loan guarantees. That backstop would leave the public on the hook if the endeavor falters, an outcome that has plagued previous state megaprojects. “Every taxpayer should be furious that the federal government is chasing this project,” said Cooper Freeman, the state director for The Center for Biological Diversity, which is suing the federal government over the proposed pipeline’s threat to endangered species.

Meanwhile, a wave of liquified natural gas development is expected to flood global supply by 2030, including from export projects in British Columbia that are closer to completion and share Alaska’s proximity to Asian markets. In a blunt assessment, independent energy market firm Rapidan Energy Group warned that investors “could incur substantial financial losses” and said the Alaska project is what happens when “politics overrides commercial logic.”

Prediction: the federal government won’t be able to find private parties to put up serious money for this project. It will be a taxpayer-financed boondoggle if it happens at all—which is the same dynamic affecting plans for Canadian tarsands pipelines. Perhaps Trump has the political muscle to make all of us pay for this folly; or perhaps the upcoming elections will provide a stumbling block (see above). By the way, a widely predicted the EU seems not to be living up to its pledges to buy more LNG in return for reducing its tariffs.

+Don’t miss David Roberts’ Volts interview with Saul Griffith from earlier today. Readers of this newsletter will be long acquainted with his basic arguments about how to make solar cheaper, but his comparison of putting solar on the roof of his home in Sydney and his office in San Francisco is truly breathtaking. (Spoiler: five times cheaper down under). Here’s how he describes the Aussie process:

You have to remember, this is a first world country where 40% of people have rooftop solar. At 40% of households having it, it’s pretty hard to commute home from work without seeing a truck that says on the side of it, “Hot Electric” or “Solar Hub Electric” or “Joe’s Mom and Her Dog’s Electric Solar and Water Heater Service.” You can probably call one of those on your commute. They will probably show up the next morning before 7 am and have a look at your roof. Depending upon their backlog, they’ll be on your roof within 48 hours. Or maybe it’ll be a week

+Robert Rosner has a comprehensive rundown on the prospects for nuclear power in the decades ahead from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Though I’m going to put in bold the question I think may actually turn out to be most decisive.

Whether a nuclear renaissance actually occurs in the coming decade or two will depend, to a significant degree, on the answers to three fundamental questions: Are these new designs safer than their predecessors? Do the new designs lead to changes in how one will have to deal with the inevitable waste products (including the “spent” fuel)? And do thee new designs raise additional (or new) questions regarding nuclear weapons proliferation? In posing these questions, I am willfully excluding from my analysis additional key questions that actually determine whether a true “nuclear renaissance” is now likely to arrive in the United States: Will the strong increase in assured 24/7-always available electricity demand continue? Will the cost of electricity from the new generation of nuclear reactors be competitive with that obtained from alternate electricity-generation technologies? And will we finally succeed in dealing responsibly with our high-level nuclear waste and move this material into permanent repositories?

+Kentucky is the absolute heart of coal country, of course—but a new study finds that if you started retiring aging coal-fired power plants and replacing them with renewable energy, Kentuckians would save immense amounts of money. As Liam Niemeyer explains,

“Here in Kentucky, coal was the least-cost way to produce electricity, but as our coal plants age and as the cost of renewable energy continues to fall, that’s simply no longer the case,” the head of the group that commissioned the report, said. “Continuing to rely on aging, uneconomic power plants simply leads us to less stable, less dependable and higher-cost electricity when compared to the other pathways that are modeled in our report.”

Using an open source electricity planning model, the report analyzes four pathways that Kentucky utilities could take. The analysis considered pending proposals to build new power plants and other planning documents filed by utilities. It found the least-cost pathway creates up to $2.6 billion in savings for ratepayers through 2050 by replacing coal-fired power with “clean energy resources,” primarily solar power paired with batteries to store the power.

+Americans have some company in our political misery. Czechia has a new environment minister, from the rightwing Motorists for Themselves party (admittedly, a great name that pretty much sums up all the forces wrecking the earth), and he is vowing that “green blood will run” as he makes policy changes. On assuming office, the new guy announced "the climate crisis is over today."

+Sadly, “enhanced rock weathering” does not seem to be as useful a carbon removal technology as some had hoped, a new study finds. “Integrating the pore water results with model analyses, we estimated that the average CO2 removal rate was 100 ± 30 kg CO2 ha–1 yr–1, which is 10 to 30 times lower than the upper rates reported in some previous modeling and experimental studies.”

+In much better news, check out these numbers: E-bike (and trike and rickshaw) sales are soaring across the planet, and doing far more than EVs to drive down oil demand. From Muhammad Rizwan Azhar and Waqas Uzair:

On the world’s roads last year, there were over 20 million electric vehicles and 1.3 million commercial EVs such as buses, delivery vans, and trucks.

But these numbers of four or more wheel vehicles are wholly eclipsed by two- and three-wheelers. There were over 280 million electric mopeds, scooters, motorcycles, and three-wheelers on the road last year. Their sheer popularity is already cutting demand for oil by a million barrels of oil a day—about 1 percent of the world’s total oil demand, according to estimates by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

As they point out, it comes down to money: far more humans can afford to buy these vehicles. And to operate them.

If you commute on an e-bike 20 km a day, five days a week, your charging cost would be about $20—annually.

+And one other delightful note on which to end the year. A new study is showing that growing crops in solar farms is not just good for the crops, it’s good for the farmworkers.

Agrivoltaics creates coveted shaded areas for farmworkers. That’s critical when you consider they are 35 times more likely to suffer fatal heat-related illnesses than nonagricultural workers.

Scientific data backed the workers’ instincts on the shade. Solar panels reduced the wet bulb globe temperature, a heat-measuring system, by up to 10 degrees.

Here’s an image from Shandong province, China.


The researcher, Talitha Neesham-McTiernan at the University of Arizona, interviewed lots of farmworkers. One of them confessed they found it hard to imagine ever going back to work on traditional full-sun farms — where, they added, their favorite crops had always been tomatoes, because of the shade the tall plants offered.

“By 9 a.m., in the summer, you’re just cooking,” Neesham-McTiernan said. “Being able to take that direct heat load off makes such a difference.”

Shade keeps drinking water cool too, the workers noted — a crucial benefit, given water’s role in mitigating heat stress. “They can pop their bottles under the panels and they stay cool all day,” Neesham-McTiernan said, “rather than it being, as one of the farmworkers described it, like drinking tea.”

Another worker said these benefits helped them feel less exhausted by day’s end, leaving more energy for social life and allowing a faster recovery for the next day’s work. Others said simply knowing shade was nearby reduced their mental stress.

On that note, I wish you too a week with reduced mental stress, the better to prepare for the important work ahead. See you in 2026!

sexta-feira, 31 de outubro de 2025

As pressões militares ocultas por trás do novo impulso para pequenos reactores nucleares



A recente visita de Donald Trump ao Reino Unido resultou numa chamada «parceria histórica» em matéria de energia nuclear. Londres e Washington anunciaram planos para construir 20 pequenos reatores modulares e também desenvolver tecnologia de microrreatores – apesar do facto de ainda não terem sido construídas centrais deste tipo em nenhum lugar do mundo.

O primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido, Keir Starmer, prometeu que estes planos irão proporcionar uma «era dourada» da energia nuclear, que também irá «reduzir as faturas» .

No entanto, a história da energia nuclear tem sido marcada por décadas de exageros, custos crescentes e atrasos constantes. Em todo o mundo, as tendências apontam na direção errada.

Então, porquê o entusiasmo renovado em relação à energia nuclear? As verdadeiras razões têm menos a ver com segurança energética ou alterações climáticas e muito mais com poder militar.

À primeira vista, o caso pode parecer óbvio. Os defensores da energia nuclear apresentam os pequenos reatores modulares, ou SMRs, como vitais para reduzir as emissões e atender à crescente procura por eletricidade por parte dos automóveis e centros de dados. Com as grandes centrais nucleares agora proibitivamente caras, os reatores menores são apresentados como uma alternativa empolgante.

Mas hoje em dia, mesmo as análises mais optimistas do sector admitem que a energia nuclear — mesmo os SMRs — provavelmente não conseguirá competir com as energias renováveis. Uma análise publicada no New Civil Engineer no início de 2025 concluiu que os SMRs são “a fonte mais cara por quilowatt de eletricidade gerada quando comparados com o gás natural, a energia nuclear tradicional e as energias renováveis”.

quarta-feira, 11 de setembro de 2024

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2024


The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2024 (WNISR2024) assesses the status and trends of the international nuclear industry. Earth Track was pleased to have contributed to the report again this year, with the focus chapter Power Firming and Competitive Pressure on Nuclear Energy assessing how solar/wind + storage put increasing competitive pressures on the nuclear sector.

By pulling together a mix of core data on the nuclear sector globally while addressing a handful of complex and important special topics each year, the WNISR has become a critical resource for tracking industry trends, pressures, and risks. As part of its core data review, the analysis provides a comprehensive overview of nuclear power plant data, including information on operation, production, fleet age, and construction. The WNISR discusses the status of newbuild programs in existing as well as in potential newcomer nuclear countries; notably in this year's Türkiye Focus which provides critical context to the ongoing construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant. A section is dedicated as well to ambitions and prospects for nuclear deployment in Potential Newcomer Countries in Africa, while Taiwan Focus covers the current situation and implementation of the nuclear phaseout policy.

In addition to the chapter we contributed on power firming, WNISR2024 includes special focus chapters on Nuclear Power vs. Renewable Energy Deployment; developments with Small Modular Reactor (SMR) developments; an analysis of the Russia Nuclear Dependencies of the global nuclear sector with a case study on Russian designed fuel assembly manufacturing; an analysis of the Militarization of Civil Power Plants based on the case study of tritium production for weapons in the United States and its significance for France; and an assessment of Civil-Military Cross-Financing in the U.K. Nuclear Sector discussing how tax- and rate-payers unknowingly subsidize the civil and military nuclear establishments.

The Fukushima Status Report provides an overview of ongoing onsite/offsite challenges of the 2011-disaster. The Decommissioning Status Report looks at the current situation of the now over 210 closed nuclear power reactors, close to one third of all units in the world that have generated electricity at some point. Annex 1 offers an overview by region and country of all operating nuclear programs not covered in the focus chapters.

In addition to this year's report linked to above, Earth Track's contribution on Nuclear Economics and Finance, including a review of fuel chain subsidies around the world, from last year's WNISR can be accessed here.

quinta-feira, 27 de outubro de 2022

Putin's position would not give him 'immunity' from war crime prosecution, says ICC chief prosecutor


Vladimir Putin is not immune from war crimes prosecution if the evidence points towards him, according to the International Criminal Court's (ICC) chief prosecutor.

Karim A. A. Khan KC, who is currently investigating offences on the ground in Ukraine, told Euronews that the Russian president's position would not allow him to escape with impunity.

"Neither is superior orders a defence, nor is the official position of an individual as a general or as a president or as a prime minister grounds for immunity," the prosecutor said.

"There's no immunity for international crimes, and one of the Nuremberg principles, as you'll know, is that there's no statute of limitations for war crimes or crimes against humanity."

Russia is accused of committing war crimes throughout Ukraine, with rape, murder and torture all being used against the civilian population.

It comes as missile strikes launched on Monday by Moscow killed at least 19 people and wounded 105 in Ukraine.

Khan said these kind of attacks are unacceptable if found to be true.

"One thing is clear: you cannot deliberately, intentionally target civilian objects, schools and hospitals, places of residence of civilians unless they're being used to gain a distinct military advantage," he said on Wednesday.

"Even then, there is rule of proportionality. And this is something, you know, applicable.

"Of course, you can extrapolate from that in terms of a variety of different targets, whether they're bridges or energy locations. But spreading terror is not allowed. And then one is to look at things as part of an overall pattern, as opposed to just a one off instances."

The ICC prosecutor also said international law is more relevant than ever, given the current tensions between Russia and the West.

"We're in a very critical moment, the minute leaders talk about using violence, using bombs, using the bullet. It's a matter to pause and think, where are we going? But the minute we talk about tactical nuclear weapons, it's not just the twilight zone. It's the eve of a nightmare. And we need to take it extremely seriously," Khan said.

"I think the law has a role to play. It won't solve all the world's problems, but we need to make sure that it is seen to be relevant in these most critical moments that your viewers are living through, that we're all living through it. This is not a Hollywood movie. This is not something that is some drama. This is something that is up close and personal to too many."

Khan and his joint investigative team are currently looking into war crimes in Ukraine with six EU countries under the umbrella of Eurojust, the bloc's judicial co-operation agency.


Captured and wounded Wagner convict who served a term for aggravated murder (which he obviously denies). Says out of his group of 50 people, 12 remain alive so far.

sexta-feira, 21 de outubro de 2022

Simulação arrepiante prevê o que pode acontecer numa guerra nuclear entre a Rússia e a NATO: 92 milhões de mortos em poucas horas

Conhecido como “Plano A“, a animação de quatro minutos visa destacar as terríveis consequências potenciais do conflito entre a Rússia e os países da NATO.


Foi criado por pesquisadores da Universidade de Princeton que trabalham com o Programa de Ciência e Segurança Global.

O modelo prevê que quase 92 milhões de pessoas morreriam em poucas horas – muitas delas nos primeiros 45 minutos.

Um conflito tão devastador deixaria mais 56 milhões de feridos – sem incluir as mortes posteriores por precipitação nuclear e outros efeitos.

Esta fase devastadora da guerra pode resultar em 3,4 milhões de baixas em apenas 45 minutos.

Na fase final do conflito, ambos os lados teriam como alvo as 30 maiores cidades e centros económicos um do outro, com entre cinco e 10 armas nucleares para cada um, para tentar impedir que o outro lado se recuperasse após a guerra.

Um movimento tão drástico, acreditam os pesquisadores de Princeton, levaria a mais 91 milhões de vítimas no espaço de horas.

O vídeo foi lançado originalmente em 2017, mas ganhou nova atenção após a invasão da Ucrânia pela Rússia em fevereiro deste ano.

As fatalidades e baixas imediatas resultantes que ocorreriam em cada fase do conflito são determinadas usando dados do NUKEMAP . Todas as estimativas de fatalidade são limitadas a mortes agudas por explosões nucleares e seriam significativamente aumentadas por mortes ocorridas por precipitação nuclear e outros efeitos de longo prazo. A simulação foi desenvolvida por Alex Wellerstein , Tamara Patton , Moritz Kütt e Alex Glaser com a assistência de Bruce Blair , Sharon Weiner e Zia Mian . O som é de Jeff Snyder .

Fonte: Plan A
Notícia com gráficos aqui e aqui


quinta-feira, 4 de novembro de 2021

China acusa EUA de “manipulação” após relatório sobre capacidade nuclear de Pequim



A China denunciou esta quinta-feira o que classificou de “manipulação” por parte dos Estados Unidos, após a publicação de um relatório do Pentágono sobre a aceleração mais rápida do que o previsto do programa nuclear chinês.

O Departamento de Defesa norte-americano (Pentágono) estimou que Pequim está a desenvolver o seu arsenal nuclear muito mais rápido do que o antecipado e que já pode lançar mísseis balísticos armados com ogivas nucleares a partir do mar, terra e ar.

A China está a modernizar o seu exército para “enfrentar os Estados Unidos da América (EUA)” na região do Indo-Pacífico e facilitar a reunificação de Taiwan, notou o documento.

Pequim considera a ilha de Taiwan parte do seu território, apesar de esta funcionar como uma entidade política soberana.

Wang Wenbin, o porta-voz do Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros da China, acusou os Estados Unidos de tentar “puxar” pela tese da ameaça chinesa.

“O relatório, divulgado pelo Pentágono, como os anteriores, ignora os factos e está cheio de preconceitos”, disse Wang aos jornalistas, criticando Washington por “manipulação”.

Na edição anterior deste relatório entregue no Congresso norte-americano, e publicado no início de setembro de 2020, o Pentágono estimou que a China tinha “cerca de 200” ogivas nucleares, mas anteviu que este número podia duplicar nos próximos dez anos.

Com 700 ogivas nucleares, até 2027, e 1.000, até 2030, as novas projeções dos militares dos EUA mostram uma forte aceleração da capacidade atómica de Pequim.

“A China provavelmente já estabeleceu uma 'tríade nuclear' nascente, ou seja, a capacidade de lançar mísseis balísticos nucleares a partir do mar, terra e ar”, lê-se no documento.

Os autores do relatório basearam-se, em particular, em declarações das autoridades chinesas na imprensa oficial e em imagens de satélite que mostram a construção de um número significativo de silos nucleares.

Apenas parte deste documento foi tornado público, sendo o restante classificado como segredo da Defesa dos EUA.

“É muito preocupante para nós”, admitiu um responsável norte-americano, acrescentando que esta aceleração “levanta questões sobre as intenções” da China.

Mesmo com 1.000 ogivas nucleares, o arsenal chinês estaria longe de se igualar ao dos Estados Unidos e da Rússia, que juntos possuem mais de 90% das armas nucleares mundiais.

Em outubro de 2020, o Partido Comunista Chinês estabeleceu como meta modernizar a organização, o pessoal, o armamento e o equipamento do seu exército, até 2027, lembrou o relatório.

O Presidente norte-americano, Joe Biden, afirmou recentemente que os Estados Unidos têm o “compromisso” de defender militarmente Taiwan no caso de um ataque chinês.

O Pentágono acrescentou este ano ao seu relatório anual um capítulo sobre as pesquisas químicas e biológicas do país asiático, que considera “preocupantes”.

“A China envolveu-se em atividades biológicas potencialmente aplicáveis” no campo militar, disse o documento norte-americano.

“Com base nas informações disponíveis, os Estados Unidos não podem garantir que a China cumpra a Convenção Internacional de Armas Químicas”, frisou.

terça-feira, 24 de agosto de 2021

The nuclearization of space


By Karl Grossman

“BACK TO THE FUTURE NASA’S NEW NUCLEAR VISION” was the headline emblazoned on the cover of the May 3-16, 2021 edition of the leading U.S. aerospace trade publication, Aviation Week & Space Technology.

“More than sixty years after the U.S. began serious studies into nuclear propulsion for space travel, NASA is taking the first steps on a new path to develop nuclear-powered engines for crewed missions to Mars by the end of the next decade,” it began.

“Nuclear enabled space vehicles would allow NASA to keep the round-trip crewed Mars mission duration to about two years, versus more than three years with the best chemical rockets and even longer with solar electric propulsion,” the extensive five-page piece declared.

Also, it said, “other factors strengthening the case for nuclear power include growing interest from the Defense Department in using the technology to extend operational capability in space.”

Further, nuclear power—either through nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) or nuclear electric propulsion (NEP)—would “provide power for future crewed and robotic deep-space exploration missions as well as faster, more responsive resupply flights to lunar and Martian outposts.”

The article was accompanied by a two-page addition providing a military link. “Draco Embarks on Quest To Revive Nuclear Space Propulsion,” was the headline of this piece. Draco stands for “Demonstration Rocket for Agile Cislunar Operations.” It’s a program of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), a U.S. Department of Defense agency that develops technologies for the military.

Space News, another major U.S. aerospace publication, two weeks later ran a two-page piece headlined: “America’s future in space is nuclear.”

Authored by John M. Horack, the Neil Armstrong Chair in Aerospace Policy at Ohio State University, he previously worked for almost two decades at NASA and led the Science and Mission Systems Office at NASA’s Space Flight Center.

Horack wrote: “Today, we have a unique opportunity to make the entire solar system—including the strategically vital regions of space surrounding the Earth and the moon—more accessible, through investments in advanced propulsion systems…Nuclear thermal propulsion is the most promising technology to accomplish these goals.” It “will enable the U.S. to ‘sail’ the ocean of space with greater efficiency, capability, and autonomy, thereby exercising and helping secure our leadership position in civil and national security spaceflight activities.”

These are “dangerous plans for full-blown nukes in space,” declares Bruce Gagnon, coordinator of the Global Network Against Weapons and Nuclear Power in Space.

They translate to “high-risk for those of us on Earth below as nuclear reactors are launched on rockets that blow up from time to time,” said Gagnon. Moreover, although there are no cost estimates included in any of the trade journal pieces, Gagnon asks: “Where will those funds come from? Maybe from the budget that helps deal with our current climate crisis here on Mother Earth.”

Established in 1992, the Global Network, based in Maine, is the leading group internationally challenging the use of nuclear power in space.

The “BACK TO THE FUTURE” reference in the main Aviation Week & Space Technology article refers to, as it notes, how “the new program will also leverage knowledge gained as far back as the 1955-73 Atomic Energy Commission’s Project Rover and 1961-73 NASA Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application program.” These projects “were canceled as funding priorities shifted.”

“The benefits of space nuclear propulsion are as attractive as the challenges are daunting,” said the piece. “Although offering faster trip times…the practicality of integrating a fission reactor into a viable propulsion system will require significant technological advances, particularly in materials in fuel. The solid core reactor—the configuration most likely to be used in near-term NTP designs—can create much higher temperatures than conventional materials can withstand. Additionally, fuel coatings can crack because of large temperature variations along fuel rods, lowering performance.”

“So,” asks the piece, “with these ever-prevent challenges still an obstacle, is NASA’s new nuclear space plan more realistic than previous attempts?”

In response, it quotes Anthony Calomino, whom it identifies as nuclear technology portfolio lead in NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate, saying: “The need case for the technology has changed in the last few decades, particularly with NASA’s focus on developing the capabilities for Mars missions.”
The additional piece with the military link starts off: “A nebulously named ‘Deterrence Layer’ is on the drawing board for the National Defense Space Architecture, and that could mean the return of a functioning U.S. operated, nuclear-powered satellite in orbit by 2025 for the first time in 60 years.”

“The idea of nuclear-powered space flight by the military is hardly original to Draco,” it states. “The U.S. Air Force operated the 950-lb. Systems for Nuclear Auxiliary Power (SNAP-10A) satellite which used an onboard nuclear reactor to generate at least 500 watts of electricity for 43 days in 1965 until the failure of a nonpropulsive component. Although no longer in service, the SNAP-10A reactor is expected to remain in orbit for the next 3,000 years.” SNAP-10A was fueled with uranium.

Not mentioned by Aviation Week & Space Technology was an accident the year earlier—involving a radioisotope thermoelectric generator, SNAP-9A, not a reactor but a device utilizing heat from the breakdown of plutonium to produce electricity. The satellite on which it was to provide power failed to attain orbit and crashed back into the atmosphere, the plutonium in SNAP-9A dispersing and spreading widely on Earth.

Dr. John Gofman, an M.D. and Ph.D. involved in the isolation of plutonium during the Manhattan Project and long a professor of medical physics at the University of California at Berkeley, connected the SNAP-9A accident with a spike in lung cancer on Earth.

The article went on: “Twenty years after the launch of SNAP-10A, the Strategic Defense Initiative revived the nuclear-powered rocket concept as a proposal for the upper stage of a boost-phase intercept that would shoot down intercontinental ballistic missiles over the Soviet Union from Alaska. As the Cold War ended, the so-called Timberwind project was transferred to the Air Force to pursue as a science experiment, but it was cancelled in 1994 before a reactor could be tested.”

The article also declares: “Concerns about launching a nuclear reactor into space have persisted for decades.”

A NASA webinar on U.S. space nuclear plans was held earlier this year, relates Gagnon, which emphasized how the U.S. is moving ahead with not only schemes for nuclear propulsion in space but for plans for “full nuclearization” of colonies on the moon, Mars “and in other planetary colonization.”

The public relations slogan being advanced, Gagnon said, was that the space nuclear activities would be “’clean and reliable.’ That’s a laugh. Say it often enough and the public might begin to believe it.”

Gagnon said the nuclear reactors for placement on the moon were described in the NASA webinar as having a “10-year life-cycle, which would mean frequent launches of these nuclear reactors.” And, he noted, one out of 100 rocket launches have historically resulted in a major malfunction, usually the rocket blowing up.

Further, nuclear operations on the moon were described as “working out the kinks for the Mars missions.” Said Gagnon: “So it is more than clear that this entire program is one very dangerous experiment.”

Meanwhile, continued Gagnon, “Little is said about the national Department of Energy nuclear labs where they fabricate space nuclear devices. Over the years we’ve learned that these labs have a long and dirty track record of accidental worker and local water/air contamination of uranium and plutonium.

“The nuclear industry clearly is interested in hitching a ride,” said Gagnon, “as it eyes the opportunity to put its toxic product on the moon, Mars and on rockets to the red planet. The DoE and NASA plan to cut as many corners as possible on testing and funding and lessen public scrutiny of these deadly projects. For those of us who have been tracking the nuclear space industry for many years, the alarm bells are clanging in our ears. It would be the right time for inquiring people to raise questions, challenge untested assumptions, and warn an unsuspecting public about the dangers of the nuclearization of the heavens.”

The SNAP-9A and SNAP-10 space mishaps spurred NASA in pioneering solar power for satellites. Now, all satellites utilize solar energy as does the International Space Station.

But despite claiming for decades that nuclear power was needed for space probes, NASA used three solar photovoltaic panels on its Juno space probe, which in 2016 reached Jupiter. Juno is still up there, orbiting and studying the solar system’s largest planet, at which sunlight is a hundredth of what it is on Earth.

There have been studies and articles through the years pointing to solar power as an energy source for moon and Mars colonies including a piece in Universe Today headed “Solar Power Is Best for Mars Colonies.”

And a Discover magazine piece, “How to Harvest Terawatts of Solar Power on the Moon,” spoke of the Japanese corporation, Shimizu, “gearing up to develop solar power on the moon.” The “photovoltaic cells themselves could be tissue thin, since the moon has no weather or air,” said the article, “and half of the moon is in sunlight at any one time.” Indeed, said the article, a huge amount of solar power energy could be generated on the moon and be beamed back to Earth.

Karl Grossman is professor of journalism at State University of New York/College at Old Westbury, and is the author of the book, The Wrong Stuff: The Space’s Program’s Nuclear Threat to Our Planet, and the Beyond Nuclear handbook, The U.S. Space Force and the dangers of nuclear power and nuclear war in space. Grossman is a board member of Beyond Nuclear and an associate of the media watch group Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting (FAIR). He is a contributor to Hopeless: Barack Obama and the Politics of Illusion.

sexta-feira, 30 de abril de 2021

Tratado de Não Proliferação das Armas Nucleares

Tratado de Não Proliferação Nuclear: uma garantia cada vez mais frágil e ameaçada



Tratado de não Proliferação das Armas Nucleares by João Soares on Scribd


Tratado de Não Proliferação das Armas Nucleares

Bibliografia: 
- Daniel H. Joyner, Interpreting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Oxford Universtity Press, 2011, 200 pp.

- Ian Bellany, Outflanking missile defences: the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, nuclear weapons and terrorism, in Defense & Security Analysis, Vol. 28, n.º 1, 2012, p. 81-96
- Arsalan M. Suleman, Bargaining in the Shadow of Violence: The NPT, IAEA, and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Negotiations, in Berkeley Journal of International Law, Vol. 26, n.º1, Fall 2007, p. 206-253
- Orde F. Kittrie, Averting Catastrophe: Why the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is Losing its Deterrence Capacity, in Michigan Journal of International Law, Vol. 28, n.º2, Winter 2007, p. 337-430
- Jonathan Granoff, The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and Its 2005 Review Conference: A Legal and Political Analysis, in New York University Journal of International Law & Politics, Vol. 39, n.º4, 2007, p. 995-1006
- Christopher A. Ford, The Nonproliferation Bestiary: A Typology and Analysis of Nonproliferation Regimes,in New York University Journal of International Law & Politics, Vol. 39, n.º4, 2007, p. 937-993
- Gary J. Meise, Securing the strength of the renewed NPT: China, the linchpin " middle kingdom", in Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law, 1997, V.30, n.3, p.539-578
- Paul Szasz, IAEA safeguards for NPT, in Review of European Community & International Environmental Law, 1996 V.5, n.3, p.239-245
- Tuiloma Neroni Slade, 1995 review and extension of the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, in Review of European Community & International Environmental Law, 1996, V.5, n.3, p.246-252
- Jozef Goldblat, The nuclear non-proliferation régime: assessment and prospects, in Recueil des Cours, T.256 (1995), p.9-191
- Mohamed I. Shaker, La conférence des parties au traité sur la non-prolifération des armes nucléaires (TNP) : New York, Avril-Mai 1995, in Annuaire Français de Droit International, v.41 (1995), p.169-183

Estados Partes: NPT

sexta-feira, 6 de outubro de 2017

Nobel Peace Prize Awarded to Anti-Nuclear Weapons Group


The 2017 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to the Geneva-based International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, or ICAN. The group consists of about 500 organizations in more than 100 countries that are working toward global nuclear disarmament.

In announcing the award, the chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, Berit Reiss-Andersen, said the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons was performing vital work.

“Some states are modernizing their nuclear arsenals and there is a real danger that more countries will try to procure nuclear weapons, as exemplified by North Korea.”

ICAN's executive director, Beatrice Fihn, said she hopes the prize sends a clear message to nuclear states.

“You can't threaten to indiscriminately slaughter hundreds of thousands of civilians in the name of security.”

The award, worth $1.1 million, is widely seen as a political statement at a time of high geopolitical uncertainty.

Pyongyang's series of nuclear and weapons tests this year has shaken the global security order.

This past week, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to end the 2015 Iran nuclear deal accusing Tehran of failing to live up to the “spirit of the agreement.” Critics fear knock-on effects.

“If the U.S. proves itself to be an unreliable negotiating partner, I think North Korea would have no incentive really to engage in any sort of discussion about its nuclear program,” says Paulina Izewicz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The world’s two biggest nuclear powers, the United States and Russia, are reducing their stockpiles of atomic weapons under the 2010 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

“The two sides are inspecting each other’s arsenals, they’re reducing warheads, delivery vehicles,” noted Heather Williams of Kings College London; however, she adds that a Cold War-era agreement on intermediate range weapons is at a breaking point.

“Russia is now deploying forces that are pretty flagrant violations of it.”




The Nobel committee praised ICAN's efforts toward securing the 2017 U.N. Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. A total of 122 nations adopted the deal — but none of the nine known nuclear powers signed up.

“One of the flaws with the treaty is that it doesn’t address the reasons that states have nuclear weapons in the first place. Why does Pakistan want nuclear weapons? Why does India?” says Williams.

Nearly three decades after the end of the Cold War, the debate between disarmament versus deterrence is still being fought.

“The deterrence camp views the disarmament camp as idealistic dreamers, completely unrealistic. And the disarmament camp looks at the deterrence people as morally deficient. So as a consequence, having the Nobel Peace Prize in the mix, I worry that it will not be helpful to bridging that divide,” says Izewicz.

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons says winning the Nobel prize “shines a needed light” on the pathway toward a world free of nuclear weapons.

terça-feira, 3 de dezembro de 2013

Trinity - Nuclear detonations from 1945 to present plotted on a world map – video


We, ICAN believe we do can really ban nuclear. If non-nuclear-weapon states take the lead and start a process to ban and eliminate all nuclear weapons on the basis of the catastrophic humanitarian consequences they produce, nuclear weapons will not be seen as power instruments but unacceptable weapons like chemical and biological weapons.

Trinity from Orbital Mechanics on Vimeo.

This eerie visualisation was created by Ortibal Mechanics, an audiovisual collective based in Montreal. It begins in 1945, before picking up speed with thousands of detonations over the following decades. Each one is colour-coded: red for atmospheric, yellow for underground, and blue for underwater.

Coder Ehsan Rezaie included every detonation he could cross-reference in both the Australian government’s geoscience database and this archive. The only specific omission is the 2013 North Korean test, which has only been verified by detection of seismic activity

sábado, 21 de setembro de 2013

Necrotecnologia

Angels of Liberty- Dead Tormented

Letra
Sometimes I feel so lonely
Sometimes I feel just cold and
I know you feel it too

City lights, no one to love you
All alone the world will break you
I know, I've been there too

She's dead
She's dead to the outside
Tormented on the inside

Some love you you
Most will hate you
Little bitches will try and break you

I know its grim but its true
We're all here in the same dimension
Every fucker needs more attention
Slim talent and anorexic too

She's dead
She's dead on the outside
Tormented on the inside
Its a world of savagery

Her beauty is fragility
In lonely streets, decaying rooms
She'll fade into history

I'm polite and dance around it
The arrogant they brag about it
And make us sick of it too

Rejection builds persistence
Then its great to feel resistance
Hammering down your barricades

She's dead
Awake inside a dream
Her shadow
Strangles her own screams

She's dead
She's dead
Shes dead on the outside
Tormented on the inside

Its a world of savagery
Her beauty is fragility
In lonely streets, decaying rooms
She'll fade into history

Dead, demented

Microdots, razorwire
Proton wedding
The mind on fire

A música 'Dead Tormented' da banda Angels of Liberty explora temas profundos de solidão, dor interna e a fragilidade da beleza em um mundo cruel e indiferente. A letra começa com uma sensação de isolamento e frieza, sentimentos que são compartilhados entre o eu-lírico e o ouvinte. As luzes da cidade, que normalmente simbolizam vida e energia, aqui são um contraste com a solidão e a falta de amor, sugerindo que a urbanização pode ser desumanizadora.

A repetição da frase 'She's dead' enfatiza a morte emocional e espiritual da personagem central, que está 'morta por fora' e 'atormentada por dentro'. Isso sugere uma desconexão entre a aparência externa e o estado interno, uma metáfora poderosa para a alienação e a dor que muitas pessoas sentem, mas que não são visíveis para o mundo exterior. A letra também critica a superficialidade e a crueldade da sociedade, onde a beleza é frágil e facilmente destruída, e onde a rejeição pode levar à persistência, mas também ao sofrimento.

A música também aborda a dualidade entre a aparência e a realidade, com a beleza sendo descrita como 'fragilidade' e a personagem principal 'desaparecendo na história'. A letra sugere que, apesar da aparência externa, há uma luta interna constante, simbolizada pela 'sombra que estrangula seus próprios gritos'. A referência a 'microdots, razorwire' e 'proton wedding' no final da música adiciona uma camada de surrealismo e desespero, refletindo a complexidade e a intensidade da tormenta interna. Em suma, 'Dead Tormented' é uma reflexão sombria sobre a condição humana, a fragilidade da beleza e a dor invisível que muitos carregam.
Quando faço acções de Educação Ambiental recorro muito a bandas góticas e neo-góticas que nos alertam para o lado cada vez mais necrotecnológico da mão humana, nomeadamente armas em geral: armas químicas, armas biológicas e armas nucleares... e as suas consequências!

When I do Environmental Education workhops I turn very neo-Gothic bands that alert us to the next increasingly necrotecnologic of the human hand- chemical, biological and nuclear weapons ... and its consequences!

quinta-feira, 16 de fevereiro de 2012

Lista de Bancos que apoiam o Nuclear



Em 26 de Maio de 2011 foi inaugurado o sítio Nuclear Banks,uma colaboração conjunta entre as ONG BankTrack, Greenpeace International, Urgewald (Alemanha), Les Amis de la Terre (França), Antiatom Szene (Áustria), WISE (Holanda) and CRBM (Itália).

Muitos bancos, especialmente os mais prestigiados, adoram apregoar os seus investimentos milionários em  tecnologias verdes e energia renovável. Contudo são esquivos e não desejam que muita gente saiba é o seu envolvimento na energia nuclear e negócios obscuros e bilionários do nuclear. Nuclear não ajuda a mitigar as alterações climáticas. Não é segura, não é limpa e não é fiável. E não é barata.
É este segredo que não querem que todos saibam: a LISTA DOS BANCOS QUE APOIAM O NUCLEAR


There’s one thing nuclear power needs more of than anything else. Money. Lots and lots of money. Our money. Our savings and our deposits.

Who gives the nuclear industry the billions of dollars and euros of our money to build new reactors, block renewable energy, contaminate the environment and create highly dangerous waste that will be with the human race for hundred of thousands of years to come? The banks do.

The banks have handed hundreds of billions of euros to the nuclear industry since 2000. We have identified transactions worth 200 billion, and this is only a part of the whole picture. And they’re not finished yet. With the industry planning to build dozens of new reactors, the banks risk pouring yet more of our billions into this dirty and dangerous black hole.

Banktrack is a coalition of citizen organisations whose research campaign is tracking down those financial institutions bankrolling the nuclear industry.

The website will tell you all you need to know about the nuclear industry’s players, their plans and plots. It will reveal the nuclear renaissance’s dirty deals and dodgy deeds. Find out about the nuclear banks, companies and projects. Join the campaign and take action.

Let’s send the message to the banks: Nuclear Deals – No Thanks!

terça-feira, 19 de abril de 2011

Nuclear Nightmare- artigo de um dos gurus do consumidor


 

The unfolding multiple nuclear reactor catastrophe in Japan is prompting overdue attention to the 104 nuclear plants in the United States—many of them aging, many of them near earthquake faults, some on the west coast exposed to potential tsunamis.

Nuclear power plants boil water to produce steam to turn turbines that generate electricity. Nuclear power’s overly complex fuel cycle begins with uranium mines and ends with deadly radioactive wastes for which there still are no permanent storage facilities to contain them for tens of thousands of years.

Atomic power plants generate 20 percent of the nation’s electricity. Over forty years ago, the industry’s promoter and regulator, the Atomic Energy Commission estimated that a full nuclear meltdown could contaminate an area “the size of Pennsylvania” and cause massive casualties. You, the taxpayers, have heavily subsidized nuclear power research, development, and promotion from day one with tens of billions of dollars.

Because of many costs, perils, close calls at various reactors, and the partial meltdown at the Three Mile Island plant in Pennsylvania in 1979, there has not been a nuclear power plant built in the United States since 1974.

Now the industry is coming back “on your back” claiming it will help reduce global warming from fossil fuel emitted greenhouse gases.

Pushed aggressively by President Obama and Energy Secretary Chu, who refuses to meet with longtime nuclear industry critics, here is what “on your back” means:

1. Wall Street will not finance new nuclear plants without a 100% taxpayer loan guarantee. Too risky. That’s a lot of guarantee given that new nukes cost $12 billion each, assuming no mishaps. Obama and the Congress are OK with that arrangement.

2. Nuclear power is uninsurable in the private insurance market—too risky. Under the Price-Anderson Act, taxpayers pay the greatest cost of a meltdown’s devastation.

3. Nuclear power plants and transports of radioactive wastes are a national security nightmare for the Department of Homeland Security. Imagine the target that thousands of vulnerable spent fuel rods present for sabotage.

4. Guess who pays for whatever final waste repositories are licensed? You the taxpayer and your descendants as far as your gene line persists. Huge decommissioning costs, at the end of a nuclear plant’s existence come from the ratepayers’ pockets.

5. Nuclear plant disasters present impossible evacuation burdens for those living anywhere near a plant, especially if time is short.

Imagine evacuating the long-troubled Indian Point plants 26 miles north of New York City. Workers in that region have a hard enough time evacuating their places of employment during 5 pm rush hour. That’s one reason Secretary of State Clinton (in her time as Senator of New York) and Governor Andrew Cuomo called for the shutdown of Indian Point.

6. Nuclear power is both uneconomical and unnecessary. It can’t compete against energy conservation, including cogeneration, windpower and ever more efficient, quicker, safer, renewable forms of providing electricity. Amory Lovins argues this point convincingly (see RMI.org). Physicist Lovins asserts that nuclear power “will reduce and retard climate protection.” His reasoning: shifting the tens of billions invested in nuclear power to efficiency and renewables reduce far more carbon per dollar. The country should move deliberately to shutdown nuclear plants, starting with the aging and seismically threatened reactors. Peter Bradford, a former Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) commissioner has also made a compelling case against nuclear power on economic and safety grounds.

There is far more for ratepayers, taxpayers and families near nuclear plants to find out. Here’s how you can start:

1. Demand public hearings in your communities where there is a nuke, sponsored either by your member of Congress or the NRC, to put the facts, risks and evacuation plans on the table. Insist that the critics as well as the proponents testify and cross-examine each other in front of you and the media.

2. If you call yourself conservative, ask why nuclear power requires such huge amounts of your tax dollars and guarantees and can’t buy adequate private insurance. If you have a small business that can’t buy insurance because what you do is too risky, you don’t stay in business.

3. If you are an environmentalist, ask why nuclear power isn’t required to meet a cost-efficient market test against investments in energy conservation and renewables.

4. If you understand traffic congestion, ask for an actual real life evacuation drill for those living and working 10 miles around the plant (some scientists think it should be at least 25 miles) and watch the hemming and hawing from proponents of nuclear power.

The people in northern Japan may lose their land, homes, relatives, and friends as a result of a dangerous technology designed simply to boil water. There are better ways to generate steam.

Like the troubled Japanese nuclear plants, the Indian Point plants and the four plants at San Onofre and Diablo Canyon in southern California rest near earthquake faults. The seismologists concur that there is a 94% chance of a big earthquake in California within the next thirty years. Obama, Chu and the powerful nuke industry must not be allowed to force the American people to play Russian Roulette!

Ralph Nader is a consumer advocate, lawyer, and author. His most recent book - and first novel - is, Only The Super-Rich Can Save Us. His most recent work of non-fiction is The Seventeen Traditions.

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