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terça-feira, 30 de junho de 2026

A onda de calor na Europa é a mais quente e húmida de sempre

As temperaturas actuais na Europa ocidental e central teriam sido virtualmente impossíveis há 50 anos, e os níveis de humidade sem precedentes tornam esta onda de calor especialmente perigosa.
Não sou eu que o digo. É a Ciência e a Biogeografia que o dizem.

A Europa está a viver um verão histórico e extremamente severo. Após um final de junho com recordes absolutos de temperatura estilhaçados por todo o continente, com os termómetros a passarem os 41°C na Alemanha e os 44°C em França e Espanha, os modelos de previsão sazonal apontam para uma continuidade deste cenário crítico nos meses de julho e agosto.
As previsões detalhadas para as próximas semanas indicam que, em julho, haverá o retorno da crista de altas pressões. Embora os primeiros dias do mês tragam um ligeiro alívio temporário em partes da Europa Central e Ocidental devido a uma mudança de fase na Oscilação do Atlântico Norte (NAO), o calor extremo vai regenerar-se rapidamente. Em Portugal e Espanha, o IPMA e a AEMET já emitiram avisos para o início de julho, prevendo máximas entre os 40°C e os 43°C, especialmente nos vales do Tejo, Douro e Alentejo, acompanhadas de "noites tropicais" onde as mínimas não descem dos 20°C a 25°C. 
Já na segunda quinzena de julho, os modelos europeus, como o ECMWF, apontam para o regresso em força da crista de alta pressão e de um bloqueio atmosférico. Espera-se que o núcleo do calor extremo se mova ligeiramente mais para Leste, afetando severamente a Europa Central, Itália e os Balcãs, mas mantendo todo o sul do continente com temperaturas muito acima da média.
Por sua vez, as previsões para agosto desenham-se como o mês mais preocupante em termos de persistência e risco de incêndios, caracterizando-se por calor sustentado e seca. 
Os modelos de longo prazo estimam que as temperaturas globais em agosto sejam 1°C a 2°C mais quentes do que a média histórica de referência de 1991–2020, sendo que no sul da Europa e no Mediterrâneo essa anomalia pode ser ainda maior. 
A probabilidade de ocorrência de ondas de calor com temperaturas acima do normal em agosto é de 60%, esperando-se que os sistemas de alta pressão se tornem dominantes e estacionários, o que favorece períodos de calor mais longos e secos. Adicionalmente, o fator marítimo terá um papel crucial, dado que as águas do Atlântico e, muito em particular, o Mar Mediterrâneo estão a registar uma onda de calor marinha. Esta água invulgarmente quente impede o arrefecimento noturno das zonas costeiras e atua como um combustível que intensifica a sensação de abafamento e a força das massas de ar quente que sobem do Norte de África.

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sábado, 1 de outubro de 2022

Fact Check: A emergência climática existe


Uma “Declaração Mundial sobre o Clima” assinada por mais de 1.100 pessoas, e compartilhada milhares de vezes nas redes sociais desde agosto de 2022, desafia o consenso científico de que o aquecimento global foi provocado pelo ser humano. As afirmações contidas no documento foram desacreditadas por especialistas e poucas das pessoas que assinaram o documento são cientistas da área. Alguns têm vínculos com a indústria petrolífera e organizações negacionistas em relação ao aquecimento global.

“FIM DE PAPO: 1.200 cientistas e profissionais de todo o mundo liderados pelo Prémio Nobel de Física norueguês Professor Ivar Giaever declaram: ‘Não existe emergência climática.’”, diz uma das publicações que circulam no Facebook, Twitter (1, 2) e Telegram, que incluem links para sites (1, 2) que reportaram a declaração.

Vínculos com a indústria petrolífera

O documento que circula é uma versão atualizada de um texto publicado em 2020 pela Fundação de Inteligência Climática (Clintel), organização com sede na Holanda e fundada por Guus Berkhout — geofísico aposentado que trabalhou para a gigante petrolífera Shell — e pelo jornalista Marcel Crok.

A Clintel descreve-se como uma “fundação independente” e promove os que assinaram o texto como “uma grande variedade de cientistas competentes”.

Seus fundadores desmentiram duas reportagens (1, 2) publicadas nos meios de comunicação holandeses, segundo os quais o dinheiro de companhias de combustíveis fósseis teria financiado o trabalho de Berkhout. “A Clintel nunca recebeu um centavo da indústria petrolífera”, disse Crok à AFP por e-mail em 2 de setembro de 2022.

Entre as cinco companhias petrolíferas mencionadas nos informes holandeses, a Shell comunicou à AFP via e-mail que “não estava ciente” de ter financiado Berkhout e a ExxonMobil disse que a afirmação de que havia financiado a organização era “inexata”. As outras três empresas recusaram-se a comentar.

No entanto, sete dos que assinaram a declaração foram identificados como funcionários da Shell e outros oito são empregados da indústria petrolífera. Crok confirmou à AFP que o próprio Berkhout trabalhou para a empresa Shell “faz uns 40 anos”. Além desses, assinaram o documento 13 engenheiros e geólogos da área do petróleo e diversos especialistas em mineração.

Vários dos signatários (1, 2) teriam ligações, fossem mencionadas na lista ou documentadas noutros registos, com grupos norte-americanos do livre mercado e céticos do clima vinculados à indústria petrolífera: o Heartland Institute, Competitive Enterprise Institute e o Cato Institute.

Cada um desses grupos recebeu dinheiro da gigante petrolífera ExxonMobil, segundo os documentos fiscais e de doadores publicados pelo Greenpeace (1, 2, 3). A companhia foi acusada de minar a ciência para proteger o seu negócio de combustíveis fósseis, algo que nega.

Posto de gasolina da Shell, na Inglaterra, em 7 de junho de 2022 ( AFP / Paul Ellis)

Poucos climatologistas

As afirmações do documento são seguidas de uma lista de 1.113 signatários de 40 países: 1.007 vivos e seis registados como falecidos (com uma cruz ao lado de seus nomes). Outros 26 são denominados “Embaixadores da Declaração Mundial sobre o Clima”, e um já faleceu.

Uma das assinaturas é a de Ivar Giaever, co-vencedor do Prémio Nobel de Física em 1973 pelo seu trabalho sobre supercondutores. O Google Académico indica que ele não publicou nenhum artigo sobre a ciência do clima.

Segundo uma contagem feita pela AFP, 10 signatários descreveram-se explicitamente como climatologistas ou cientistas do clima, menos de 1% do total. Alguns outros  denominaram-se especialistas em paleoclimatologia e ciências atmosféricas.

Também assinaram o documento aproximadamente 40 geofísicos, 130 geólogos e 200 engenheiros de diversas áreas, além de vários matemáticos, médicos e agrónomos.

Captura de ecrã feita em 7 de setembro de 2022 de alguns dos nomes que assinaram a “Declaração Mundial sobre o Clima” 

Entre os signatários estão um pescador, um piloto de avião, um sommelier, um músico, um advogado, um linguista, um professor aposentado, um urologista, um psicanalista e, pelo menos, três representantes sindicais de trabalhadores da energia.

O aquecimento global é um fato

Os documentos que afirmam, cientificamente, a existência do aquecimento global são mais completos do que a “Declaração Mundial sobre o Clima”. O Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC) convidou 721 especialistas de 90 países para serem autores e editores do Sexto Relatório de Avaliação em três partes, publicado entre agosto de 2021 e abril de 2022.

O relatório é a avaliação mais completa do conhecimento científico sobre a mudança climática. Cada parte tem 3.000 páginas. Os autores revisaram centenas de estudos listados por seções de referências e concluíram que há uma evidência “inequívoca” de que o clima está a aquecer como consequência das atividades humanas que envolvem a queima de combustíveis fósseis.

Numerosas publicações nas redes sociais colocaram em dúvida o consenso científico de que os seres humanos estão impulsionando o aquecimento global. No entanto, três análises de estudos climáticos dos últimos anos indicaram que o consenso está perto de 100% (1, 2, 3).

O presidente do IPCC, Hoesung Lee, rodeado de copresidentes, em uma entrevista coletiva a respeito o relatório especial sobre as mudanças climáticas e a Terra, em Genebra, em 8 de agosto de 2019 

Afirmações climáticas falsas

Apesar do consenso, a declaração viralizada nas redes diz que vários aspectos da ciência do clima ainda estão em debate. “O que conta não é o número de especialistas, mas a qualidade dos argumentos”, assinala a Clintel.

O documento inclui uma série de afirmações sobre o tema que foram desacreditadas por especialistas da área, e não fornece as fontes usadas. A AFP e outras organizações verificaram previamente vários dos argumentos:

1. “O clima da Terra tem variado desde que o planeta existe, com fases naturais de frio e calor… Portanto, não surpreende que agora estejamos vivenciando um período de aquecimento”.

Os especialistas citados nesta verificação da AFP em espanhol disseram que o aumento das temperaturas globais nos últimos 150 anos foi anormalmente agudo, impulsionado pelas emissões de carbono posteriores à industrialização.

2. “O mundo aqueceu significativamente menos do previsto pelo IPCC sobre a base do forçamento antropogénico modelado… A política climática baseia-se em modelos inadequados”.

Esta análise, realizada pela Carbon Brief, mostrou que alguns modelos projetavam menos aquecimento do que o visto e outros mais, porém, todos mostraram aumentos de temperatura na superfície entre 1970 e 2016 que não estavam muito longe do que realmente aconteceu. Os especialistas defenderam os modelos em declarações à AFP.

3. “Mais CO2 é favorável para a natureza, trazendo de volta o verde ao nosso planeta. O CO2 adicional ao ar tem promovido o crescimento da biomassa vegetal global”.

Os especialistas citados neste artigo da equipa de verificação alemã da AFP indicaram que as plantas só podem processar uma parte limitada do excesso de emissões de dióxido de carbono e sofrem os efeitos das mudanças climáticas.

4. “Não há evidência estatística de que o aquecimento global esteja intensificando o aparecimento de furacões, inundações, secas e desastres naturais similares, ou fazendo com que eles sejam mais frequentes”.

A World Weather Attribution (WWA) calculou, utilizando métodos que incluem análise de observação de conjunto de dados históricos, que vários desastres foram mais prováveis devido às mudanças climáticas, incluindo inundações e tempestades. Seus métodos foram descritos nesta verificação da AFP em inglês sobre incêndios florestais.

terça-feira, 10 de maio de 2022

Does wood bioenergy help or harm the climate?


On the 2015 Paris climate accord, 197 countries agreed to limit warming to “well below 2 degrees Celsius,” and to strive for 1.5 degrees Celsius. To have even a roughly 50 percent chance of achieving this goal, net global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by nearly half from 2010 levels this decade and reach zero by mid-century (UNFCCC 2021). Consequently, at least 140 countries, accounting for about 90 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, have pledged to reach net zero emissions around the middle of this century (Climate Action Tracker 2021). But few have specified how they will do so. A growing number, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States, have declared wood bioenergy to be carbon neutral, allowing them to exclude the carbon dioxide generated from wood bioenergy combustion in their greenhouse gas accounting. Many subsidize wood bioenergy to help meet their renewable energy targets (Norton et al. 2019). The appeal is intuitive: burning fossil fuels adds carbon that has been sequestered underground for millions of years to the atmosphere, while forests might regrow, eventually removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

But can burning trees—including not just the trunk, but also the bark, branches, needles or leaves, roots, stumps, mill waste, sawdust, and all the other vegetative materials known as “biomass” that make up a forest—help cut carbon emissions in time to prevent climate catastrophe?

The bioenergy industry and many governments argue that wood bioenergy is carbon neutral. The “Claims and Facts” tables throughout the text below list some of the common claims the industry makes, together with the science showing these claims to be incorrect. For example, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization claims that “While burning fossil fuels releases CO2 that has been locked up for millions of years, burning biomass simply returns to the atmosphere the carbon dioxide that was absorbed as the plants grew” (Matthews and Robertson 2001). But the fact that the carbon in wood was previously removed from the atmosphere as the trees grew is irrelevant: A molecule of carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere today has the same impact on radiative forcing—its contribution to global warming—whether it comes from fossil fuels millions of years old or biomass grown last year. When burned, the carbon in those trees immediately increases atmospheric carbon dioxide above what it would have been had they not been burned.


To illustrate, consider a forest that was harvested for lumber, pulpwood, or energy 50 years ago, and has been regrowing since then. (Few forests in the United States and Europe are mature, “old growth”—most are “working forests” and go through cycles of harvest, regrowth, and reharvest [see US Forest Service 2014]). What happens if that forest is now cut and burned for energy? When the wood is burned, the carbon it contains is emitted as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. If the forest regrows, after another 50 years it will have removed about the same amount of carbon dioxide it emitted when it was cut and burned for energy. Until then, there’s more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than if it had not been burned, accelerating climate change.

But the situation is worse: If the forest had not been cut, it would have continued to grow, removing additional carbon from the atmosphere. Compared to allowing the forest to grow, cutting it for bioenergy would increase carbon dioxide emissions and worsen global warming for at least half a century—time we do not have to reach net-zero emissions and avoid the worst harms from climate change.

But what if the wood used to generate electricity reduces the use of fossil fuels? Wouldn’t total carbon dioxide emissions then fall? That depends on how much carbon dioxide is emitted from wood relative to the fuel being displaced. To determine whether wood bioenergy can slow climate change, we therefore need to know answers to a series of questions:

How much carbon dioxide does burning wood for energy add to the atmosphere?

Burning wood to generate electricity emits more carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour generated than fossil fuels—even coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel. Although wood and coal contain about the same amount of carbon per unit of primary energy—the raw energy in the fuel—(EPA 2018), wood burns less efficiently, in part because it contains more water than coal. The higher the water content, the larger the fraction of the energy of combustion goes into vaporizing that water and up the flue instead of producing the heat needed to make the steam that powers the turbines and generators (Dzurenda and Banski 2017, FAO 2015).

Carbon dioxide emissions from the wood supply chain also exceed those from coal. Wood must be harvested, transported to a mill, dried, processed into chips or pellets, and transported to a power plant (Figure 1). These activities emit carbon dioxide from fossil fuel-powered vehicles and machinery, plus emissions from burning wood or fossil fuels to reduce the water content of chips and pellets from approximately 50 percent for raw wood to about 10 percent for dried pellets. About 27 percent of the harvested biomass is lost in the wood pellet supply chain, of which the largest share—18 percent—arises from burning some of the biomass to generate heat to dry pellets (Röder et al. 2015). In contrast, coal processing adds only about 11 percent to emissions (Sterman et al. 2018a).

The situation is worse if wood displaces other fossil fuels: Wood releases about 25 percent more carbon dioxide per joule of primary energy than fuel oil, and about 75 percent more carbon dioxide than fossil (so-called “natural”) gas (EPA 2018). Wood bioenergy therefore emits more carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour of power generated than all fossil fuels, including coal (PFPI 2011), incurring a “carbon debt”—an immediate increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, worsening climate change every year, unless and until that carbon debt is repaid later by forest regrowth.

Figure 1. Life cycle emissions from wood bioenergy. Every stage of the supply chain adds CO2 to the atmosphere, from cutting the trees through transport, processing the wood into chips or pellets, transporting them to a power plant, and combustion. CO2 is removed only later, and only if, the harvested land regrows. Photo credits, left to right: Power Plant, courtesy of Paul Glazzard, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 license. Transport: Handymax bulk carrier, courtesy of Nsandel/Wikimedia/Public Domain. Pellet mill, Truck Transport, and Forest images all courtesy of Dogwood Alliance, used with permission.

Will the forests harvested for bioenergy regrow? If so, how long will it take?

The wood bioenergy industry claims to practice sustainable forestry and be carbon neutral (e.g., Drax 2021, Enviva 2021). The most important claim is that wood bioenergy is carbon neutral because the harvested forests will regrow, removing the carbon they add to the atmosphere when burned (Table 1). However, regrowth is uncertain, and regrowth takes time.

Regrowth is uncertain: Land harvested for bioenergy might be converted to pasture, cropland, or development, preventing regrowth. The carbon dioxide emitted when the trees are burned is then never taken back up by forest regrowth on that land. Even if the harvested land is allowed to regrow, the trees may be harvested again, legally or illegally. The carbon dioxide released in each rotation returns to the atmosphere, where it worsens climate change.

Even if the recovering forest is somehow protected against all future harvest, the trees face risks from wildfire, insects, disease, extreme weather, and drought, all increasing as the climate warms (Brecka et al. 2018; Xu et al. 2019, Boulton, Lenton and Boers 2022). These factors slow or prevent carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere by forests and may even convert forests from carbon sinks to carbon sources (Gatti et al. 2021). These growing risks to regrowth would limit the future removal of the carbon dioxide emitted by burning wood, permanently worsening climate change.

Regrowth takes time: Even if land conversion, repeated harvests, fire, drought, disease, and other adverse events never arise, regrowth takes time. The time required for regrowth to remove the carbon dioxide emitted when wood is burned for energy is known as the “carbon debt payback time.”


Are the forests harvested for bioenergy growing and removing carbon dioxide now?

The US bioenergy industry uses the fact that many US forests are growing today to claim that wood bioenergy is carbon neutral. For example, Enviva, the largest US pellet producer, with multiple mills in the Southeast United States, falsely argues that “…continued forest carbon gain across the landscape… means that products from the Southeast U.S., including wood bioenergy, are not adding carbon emissions to the atmosphere. As a result, when wood pellets from this region are used to generate energy, we can set stack emissions to zero.” (Enviva, nd; see Table 1).

It is true that forests in the Southeast US are acting as carbon sinks today as the result of intensive management and recovery from prior harvests. But these and other forest carbon sinks are already accounted for in the national greenhouse gas emissions inventories required under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which sets the rules for greenhouse gas accounting under international agreements (e.g., UNFCCC 2014). Therefore, what counts is what happens to emissions on the margin—that is, the incremental impact of harvesting forests for bioenergy compared to allowing those forests to continue to grow and serve as carbon sinks. Typical rotation periods for working forests are far shorter than the time required for them to reach maturity and maximum carbon storage (Moomaw, Masino, and Faison 2019, Sohngen and Brown 2011, US Forest Service 2014). The younger the forest and faster it is growing when harvested for bioenergy, the more future carbon sequestration is lost.

A dynamic lifecycle assessment of wood bioenergy

To determine the impact of wood bioenergy on carbon dioxide emissions we developed a model for dynamic lifecycle assessment of wood bioenergy (Sterman et al. 2018a; Sterman et al. 2018b). The model includes carbon dioxide emissions from bioenergy, carbon dioxide uptake by regrowth, and carbon dioxide emissions avoided if wood displaces fossil fuels. Supply chain emissions for both wood and fossil fuels are included. Model parameters were estimated from data on forest regrowth in a wide range of forests in the southern and eastern USA, regions increasingly supplying wood for pellets, much of which is exported to Europe and the United Kingdom.

 
Figure 2. Impact of harvesting wood for bioenergy in 2025 from a 50-year-old oak-hickory forest in the south central USA. Top: Change in carbon on the harvested land (tons C per hectare). Brown: carbon in soils and dead organic matter; Green: carbon in living biomass. Dotted line: the total carbon stock (living biomass and soils) if the forest were not harvested in 2025. The forest would have continued to grow and remove carbon from the atmosphere but for being cut for bioenergy. The difference between the dotted no-harvest line and the top of the green band is the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by the harvest. Bottom: Change in atmospheric CO2 resulting from the harvest and combustion of the wood. Solid line: wood displaces a zero-carbon energy source. Dotted line: wood displaces coal. Scale: the initial rise in atmospheric CO2 when wood displaces zero-carbon energy is normalized to 100%. The initial rise in atmospheric CO2 when wood displaces coal is about 50% less due to the emissions avoided by the reduction in coal use.

Figure 2 (above) shows the impact of wood harvested for bioenergy from an oak-hickory forest, “perhaps the most extensive deciduous forest type of eastern North America” (Dick 2016). The simulation parameters are estimated for oak-hickory forests in the south central United States, among the forests used to supply wood pellets for bioenergy, including exports to the United Kingdom (Buchholz & Gunn 2015; Sterman et al. 2018a 2018b report results for other forests in the southern and eastern US). Most forests in the United States have been cut multiple times. We assume the last prior harvest was 50 years ago. To assess the dynamic impact of wood bioenergy use, Figure 2 traces the impact of a single harvest in 2025, showing the stocks of carbon in the biomass and soil and the resulting change in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. We consider two scenarios:The harvested wood is used to generate electric power that replaces an equivalent amount of energy generated from coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel.
The harvested wood is used to generate electric power that replaces an equivalent amount of energy produced by zero-carbon sources (e.g., wind and solar).

The top panel of Figure 2 shows the stock of carbon on the land harvested for bioenergy (metric tons of carbon per hectare), including the carbon in the living biomass and in soils and dead organic matter. The harvest and combustion of wood for energy immediately reduces the stock of carbon in living biomass on the land and increases atmospheric carbon dioxide. The stock of carbon in dead biomass and soil also begins to drop: the wood harvest reduces the flux of carbon from living biomass to soils, while heterotrophic respiration by bacteria, fungi, and other organisms continues to release the carbon in dead biomass and soils into the atmosphere. After the harvest, the forest begins to recover. Soil carbon continues to drop for some time, however, until the flux of carbon transferred to the soils from living biomass exceeds the flux of carbon emitted to the atmosphere from the soil by heterotrophic respiration.

The simulation assumes the land is harvested 50 years after the last rotation. The forest at that time is still recovering. The dotted line in the top panel of Figure 2 shows that the total stock of carbon on that land would have continued to grow through 2200 (and beyond), but for the harvest for bioenergy. The difference between the no-harvest and harvest cases is the quantity of carbon lost to the atmosphere due to the bioenergy harvest. The bioenergy harvest not only adds the carbon extracted and burned to the atmosphere, but prevents the additional growth that would have occurred had the forest not been harvested.

The bottom panel of Figure 2 shows the change in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for the two scenarios above. The figure shows the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide relative to the no-harvest case, scaled relative to the magnitude of the initial change in carbon dioxide when the wood displaces zero-carbon energy such as wind and solar (the absolute change in atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on the amount of wood harvested and burned). Cutting and burning trees for bioenergy immediately increases the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The jump in atmospheric carbon dioxide when wood displaces coal is approximately half as much as when the wood displaces zero-carbon energy. The impact of displacing other fossil fuels such as fuel oil or fossil (“natural”) gas lies between the coal and zero-carbon scenarios because these fuels emit less carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour than coal, but of course more than wind or solar.

Note that, in both cases atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to increase through approximately 2040, 15 years after the assumed harvest in 2025. Although the harvested land begins to regrow immediately, seedlings and saplings have much smaller leaf area for photosynthesis and accumulate carbon slower than older trees. Consequently, the carbon sequestered by regrowth is initially less than the carbon the forest would have stored had it not been harvested.


After approximately the year 2040, the excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from the harvest and combustion of the wood begins to fall as regrowth outpaces the growth in carbon in the no-harvest case. However, atmospheric carbon dioxide remains above the level it would have had but for the harvest well beyond the year 2100. Even when wood displaces coal, the excess carbon dioxide is not taken back up by forest regrowth until after the year 2140: The carbon debt payback time in this scenario is approximately 115 years. When the wood displaces zero-carbon energy, atmospheric carbon dioxide remains above its initial level well past the year 2200.

The simulation shows the impact of clearing a stand of forest and using the wood for bioenergy. The bioenergy industry claims that they practice what they call “sustainable” forestry—avoiding clearcutting, taking only residues from lumber and pulpwood harvests, or thinning forests by taking only small or diseased trees. Environmental groups, however, have documented the harvest of large trees and clear-cutting by the industry (Norton et al. 2019; Stashwick et al. 2019; Stashwick et al. 2017). To address this issue, we also simulated the impact of thinning, in which only 25 percent of the living biomass is removed from the harvested forest (Sterman et al. 2018a 2018b). Across all the forests examined, thinning reduces the carbon debt payback times somewhat. For example, in the scenario shown in Figure 2, thinning reduces the carbon debt payback year from 2140 to 2115—still too late.

The simulations favor wood bioenergy. We assume that the land remains forested, that the forest grows back without any subsequent harvest, and that it suffers no losses from wildfire, disease, insects, extreme weather or other threats to regrowth. We do not consider additional carbon loss from soils due to the disturbance caused by the harvest. We do not consider non-climate harms from wood harvest and bioenergy production, including habitat fragmentation, loss of biodiversity, and the health effects of exposure to particulates and other pollutants from wood processing and power plants.

To track the impact of wood bioenergy, the simulation shows the impact of harvesting and burning wood for energy in a single year. But the bioenergy industry is growing rapidly, stimulated by the false declaration that wood is carbon neutral and resulting subsidies in many nations. The International Energy Agency reports primary energy from biomass for electricity generation grew at an average rate of more than 6 percent per year between 1990 and 2018 (IEA 2020). The IEA’s “Net-Zero by 2050” scenario projects modern bioenergy—which includes wood—will grow by more than a factor of four by 2050 (IEA 2021b).

What happens to atmospheric carbon dioxide in the realistic case of growing wood bioenergy use? Each year the carbon dioxide emissions from cutting and burning wood would exceed the removal of carbon dioxide by regrowth, continually increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, just as filling your bathtub faster than it drains will continually raise the level of water in the tub (until it overflows and damages your home).

The situation is analogous to a government that runs a continually growing fiscal deficit. The outstanding debt rises every year even if the government fully repays every bond it issues at maturity. In the same way, the growing use of wood bioenergy adds more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere every year, increasing the outstanding carbon debt, even if the forests are managed sustainably and all harvested lands eventually recover enough to fully repay the carbon debt incurred when the wood was extracted and burned.



Eventual carbon neutrality is not climate neutrality
Even under the best case where wood displaces coal, regrowth does not remove the excess carbon dioxide emitted by wood for many decades or more, and far longer if the harvested forests are growing today—as most are—and far more if wood displaces other fossil fuels. At that future time, wood bioenergy can be said to have achieved carbon neutrality. Until then, wood bioenergy increases the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere above what it would have been, accelerating global warming.

But is the climate impact of that additional warming reversed if regrowth finally removes the excess carbon dioxide? Is eventual carbon neutrality the same as climate neutrality?

The answer is “No.”
Even temporarily elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide cause irreversible climate damage (IPCC 2022; Solomon et al. 2009). The excess carbon dioxide from wood bioenergy begins warming the climate immediately upon entering the atmosphere. The harms caused by that additional warming are not undone even if the carbon debt from wood energy is eventually repaid: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt faster, sea level rises higher, wildfires become more likely, permafrost thaws faster, and storms intensify more than if the wood had not been burned. Eventual full forest recovery will not replace lost ice, lower sea level, undo climate disasters, put carbon back into permafrost, or bring back homes lost to floods or wildfires. The excess warming from wood bioenergy increases the chances of going beyond various climate tipping points that could lead to runaway climate change: emissions “pathways that overshoot 1.5°C run a greater risk of passing through ‘tipping points’, thresholds beyond which certain impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures are brought back down later on” (IPCC 2018, p. 283). Carbon neutrality is not climate neutrality.

Why does it matter? We have already raised global average surface temperatures about 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, and most of humanity already suffers from its effects (Callaghan et al. 2021, IPCC 2022). The consequences of warming beyond 2 degrees Celsius are expected to be devastating. Sea levels could rise by well over a meter by the end of this century, exposing millions of people to coastal flooding (Kulp & Strauss 2019). More than half the world’s people would be exposed to deadly heat waves (Mora et al. 2017). The yields of crops including wheat, maize, rice, and soy would fall even as the United Nations projects that world population will grow by billions (Zhao et al. 2017, United Nations 2019). Droughts, wildfires, and intense storms will become more frequent and extreme (IPCC 2018). Warming could push the Earth beyond various tipping points that could lead to irreversible harm (IPCC 2018). These impacts would intensify hunger, economic disruption, mass migration, civil conflict, and war (Burke et al. 2015; Hsiang & Burke 2014; Koubi 2019; Levy 2019). Scientists and nearly all nations on Earth therefore agree that global greenhouse gas emissions must fall as deeply and quickly as possible, reaching net zero by approximately midcentury.

Wood bioenergy moves the world in the wrong direction.

Policy implications
What can be done? First, policies that treat wood bioenergy as carbon neutral must end. These policies allow power plants and nations to ignore the carbon dioxide they emit by burning wood on the false assumption that those emissions are quickly offset by forest growth somewhere else, creating a “critical climate accounting error” (Searchinger, et al. 2009). The carbon dioxide emitted from wood should be counted the same way emissions from other fuels are: fully, at the point of combustion.

Second, subsidies for wood bioenergy must end. Subsidizing wood bioenergy means taxpayers are paying pellet and power producers to make climate change worse.

Third, the fact that wood bioenergy is worse than coal in no way justifies the continued use of coal or any fossil fuel. To avoid the worst harms from climate change we must not only keep the vast majority of remaining fossilized carbon in the ground, we must also keep the vast majority of the carbon in our forests on the land.

The good news is that existing technologies such as energy efficiency, and the use of renewables such as solar, wind, and geothermal energy, can meet people’s needs for comfort, light, mobility, communication, and other purposes. The costs of these technologies are falling rapidly, and in many places are already lower than fossil fuels (IEA 2021a). Innovations in clean energy, energy storage, smart grids, and other technologies are expanding our ability to meet everyone’s energy needs affordably. Unlike wood bioenergy, these technologies allow forests to continue growing and sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide. Investments in energy efficiency and clean energy also generate multiple co-benefits including increased community resilience, jobs, and improved health and economic well-being, especially for low-income individuals and households (Belesova et al. 2020; Burke et al. 2018; IEA 2021a; IPCC 2018; Pollin et al. 2014; Shindell et al. 2018). In contrast, particulate emissions and other pollutants from wood bioenergy damage human health (Allergy & Asthma Network et al. 2016).

To keep global warming under 2 degrees Celsius, net greenhouse gas emissions must fall to net zero by approximately mid-century, less than 30 years from now. Wood bioenergy increases greenhouse gas emissions and makes climate change worse during these critical years and beyond, even if the wood displaces coal. More effective ways to cut greenhouse gas emissions and meet human needs are available and affordable now. Ending subsidies and policies that promote wood bioenergy will reduce emissions and allow forests to continue to grow, preserving their vital role as carbon sinks that moderate climate change.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Funding

Authors John Sterman and Lori Siegel received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors for this work. Author William Moomaw was supported by a grant from the Rockefeller Brothers Foundation. Author Juliette N. Rooney-Varga was supported by the National Science Foundation under grant ICER-1701062.


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quarta-feira, 13 de outubro de 2021

Lacunas nos estudos sobre alterações climáticas sugerem que os seus impactos são ainda maiores do que se julgava

                             

Um grupo de cientistas que utilizou inteligência artificial para analisar mais de 100 mil estudos sobre o clima descobriu que existe uma desiguladade gigantesca na investigação - as zonas mais pobres do mundo não são tão estudadas como as mais ricas. Os efeitos das alterações climáticas estão a afetar muito mais gente do que se julgava, concluem

O objetivo era perceber quantas pessoas no mundo estão já a sofrer com o impacto das alterações climáticas. Surpreendentemente, um grupo de cientistas que utilizou inteligência artificial para analisar mais de 100 mil estudos sobre o clima descobriu, também, que existe uma desiguladade gigantesca no que diz respeito a esta área.

O problema, revelaram os cientistas num estudo publicado esta segunda-feira, é que a grande maioria das investigações relacionadas com as alterações climáticas são realizadas nas áreas mais desenvolvidas do planeta, principamente nos países mais ricos da Europa e da América do Norte, deixando zonas menos favorecidas fora da equação.

No meio de tantos estudos e investigações realizados nesta área, é difícil para os especialistas analisarem o real impacto das alterações climáticas e, por isso, a equipa utilizou aprendizagem automática para tentar perceber que zonas do mundo é que não tinham sido abrangidas por estes estudos. À CNN, Max Callaghan, principal autor do estudo e investigador no Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, deu a resposta: “A maioria delas.”

“O que descobrimos é que as evidências são distribuídas de forma desigual entre os países”, explicou Callaghan. “E isso é muito importante porque, muitas vezes, quando tentamos fazer um mapa ou descobrir onde estão a acontecer os impactos das mudanças climáticas, muitas vezes encontramos poucos trabalhos científicos em países menos desenvolvidos”, acrescentou – sublinhando que “a ausência de evidência não é evidência de ausência”.

Ao compilarem e analisarem os resultados que obtiveram, os autores do estudo, publicado na revista Nature Climate Change, deram conta de que 85% da população mundial já está a sentir os efeitos das alterações climáticas, mas referiram que a escassez de evidências científicas nos países mais pobres, que são as zonas menos estudadas, pode limitar as mudanças que poderiam ser propostas ou implementadas aí mesmo.

Limitações do estudo

De acordo com os autores do estudo, esta lacuna nas investigações em países mais pobres faz com que não se perceba se nessas áreas as alterações climáticas têm ou não impacto, mas os próprios autores e investigadores não envolvidos acreditam que a percentagem de população que está a sentir os seus efeitos possa ser ainda superior aos 85%. “O estudo concentrou-se em mudanças na temperatura média e precipitação, e não em extremos [de temperatura], mas sabemos que os extremos de calor estão a mudar mais rapidamente do que as temperaturas médias e que estão a acontecer em quase todos os lugares”, diz à CNN Friederike Otto, um dos líderes da iniciativa World Weather Attribution, que não esteve envolvido no estudo.

A investigação teve em conta apenas alguns eventos climáticos, deixando de fora, por exemplo, a subida do nível do mar. Os próprios autores do estudo admitem que a aprendizagem automática “não substitui a avaliação cuidadosa realizada por especialistas”. No entanto, os seus resultados são importantes porque reúnem uma série de dados importantes relativamente às lacunas existentes entre diferentes regiões.

Esta terça-feira, a Organização Mundial da Saúde afirmou que as alterações climáticas são “a maior ameaça à saúde da Humanidade”, divulgando um relatório com dez prioridades e pedindo aos países signatários do Acordo de Paris que coloquem “a saúde e a justiça social no centro das conversações” da 26ª conferência do clima das Nações Unidas (COP26), que se realiza no princípio de novembro em Glasgow, na Escócia.

quarta-feira, 22 de setembro de 2021

Does Not Present Sufficient Cause



President Joe Biden has been touring climate-ravaged areas of America, warning that climate change is a “code red” emergency for the planet. And yet, his administration has continued to boost fossil fuel projects and is now preparing to vastly expand offshore drilling.

The White House argues that a court order it opposes and is appealing requires federal officials to lease more than 78 million acres of the Gulf of Mexico for fossil fuel exploration. Environmental groups, however, assert that federal law gives the administration broad discretion over whether or not to hold such sales.

In fact, Biden’s officials have instead used that power to officially declare that the warnings in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report “does not present sufficient cause" to reevaluate the drilling plan.

With the help of the nonprofit public interest organization Earthjustice, several environmental and Gulf groups have now launched a lawsuit against the administration to stop the Gulf lease sale. The complaint argues that the environmental analysis behind the lease sale is based on outdated and arbitrary science, in violation of federal law.

“We’ve been very patient with his administration,” says Hallie Templeton, deputy legal director for Friends of the Earth, one of the environmental groups involved in the litigation. “The honeymoon’s over. It’s now September, they’ve been in office for eight months. It’s time for them to show that they have priorities and are meaningfully going to move in the right direction.”
Undercutting The Message

As Biden last week sounded the climate alarm during a tour of East Coast locales slammed by Hurricane Ida, his own administration was undercutting the message, moving forward with a fossil fuel lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico that began under Donald Trump’s presidency.

Announcement of the lease sale for more drilling arrived on the heels of a sobering new report from the IPCC, which warned of catastrophic weather-related consequences should the world’s powers not radically decarbonize. The report pinned the blame for the crisis squarely on human activity, such as fossil fuel extraction. The UN’s World Meteorological Organization also recently released a study indicating that weather-related natural disasters have increased fivefold over the last four decades.

At a press conference this week, Biden once again acknowledged the costs of climate change, calling for America to “get real” about the problem.

“Extreme weather cost America last year $99 billion,” he said. “And it’s gonna break the record this year; it’s gonna be well over $100 billion.”

“Billions Of Dollars At Stake”

Back in January, a week after taking office, Biden issued an executive order pausing “new oil and natural gas leases on public lands or in offshore waters, pending completion of a comprehensive review and reconsideration of Federal oil and gas permitting and leasing practices.” As part of his order, the Secretary of the Interior Department was directed to review existing permits for fossil fuel extraction.

Not long after the order, the administration announced it was canceling the planned lease sales of 78.2 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico, before the bidding process was set to begin in March. The administration also canceled the public comment period that was set to lead up to the lease sales of one million acres in Alaska’s Cook Inlet. Later, the Interior Department also canceled lease sales on public lands in Colorado, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming.

The order was an effort to make good on a forceful campaign promise Biden had made to end drilling on federal land, which is responsible for about a quarter of U.S. carbon emissions.

In response to Biden’s order, 13 Republican states — Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia — sued the administration to restart the leasing program in the Gulf of Mexico, Alaska, and Western States. Wyoming also sued in a separate suit.

The state attorneys general involved in the suit were all members of the fossil fuel-funded Republican Attorneys General Association. Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall is the association’s policy chairman.

In June, a Trump-appointed federal judge in Louisiana, Terry Doughty, granted the 13 states a nationwide preliminary injunction against Biden’s moratorium, directing the leasing program be resumed. Doughty ordered that the administration was specifically barred from implementing the pause with regards to the lease sales in the Gulf and Alaska.

“Millions and possibly billions of dollars are at stake,” Doughty wrote.

Following the ruling, the Republican states involved in the lawsuit filed a motion to hold the Interior Department in contempt for refusing to follow the order. The motion sought to compel the department to hold the Gulf of Mexico lease sale.

In response, the administration filed notice that it was appealing the judge’s order, as well as a defiant brief challenging the Republican states’ motion on the grounds that the court order did “not compel Interior to take the actions specified by plaintiffs, let alone on the urgent timeline specified in plaintiffs’ contempt motion.”

Nevertheless, on September 1, days after filing the brief, the White House posted a new Record of Decision online stating it would be moving forward with the Gulf of Mexico lease sale, and saying that the IPCC report would not change its environmental views on the plan.

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a new report detailing observations of a rapidly changing climate in every region globally, the decision said. “This report does not present sufficient cause to supplement the (environmental impact statement) at this time.”

“Pandering To Both Sides”

Environmental activists say the administration could be taking a tougher stand on drilling on public lands and offshore.

“If the administration’s going to appeal that [order], why not seek a stay to allow them to continue the pause while the appeal is going forward?” Templeton says. “It’s really confusing what’s going on here, it’s like they’re pandering to both sides in a way.”

Even without such a stay, Brettny Hardy, a senior attorney at Earthjustice, says federal law grants the government discretion over whether or not to hold lease sales.

“Initially, the reason that they gave when they canceled the lease sale is that there was a pause from the executive order,” she says. “So they can’t decide to cancel the lease sale because of the pause, because the pause is no longer enforced right now. But they could cancel the lease sale for any number of other reasons, including the fact that they don’t have adequate environmental analysis.”

According to Hardy, the environmental impact statement required for the Gulf lease sale is now out of date because it was completed years ago, before recent advances in attribution science that more closely linked human activity and extreme effects of climate change.

Templeton says the administration’s decision that the dire new IPCC report “does not present sufficient cause” to conduct a new environmental analysis does not make sense.

“Why rely on five-year-old environmental analyses to continue this permitting when the law is clear [that] you’ve got to have updated analysis and rely on the best available science?” she says. “We have science since 2016 showing that climate change is worse than ever and our timeline is not a long one to reverse course.”