Long lines, desperate renters: Those who have tried to find an
apartment in Munich or Hamburg are familiar with the challenge. It is
almost impossible to find a place to live in those cities.
Indeed, the shortage of affordable apartments
in many German cities has become an issue this campaign season, with
the center-left Social Democrats even putting their demand for
affordable rents on some of their campaign posters. But a trip through
parts of eastern Germany, such as the states of Brandenburg and
Saxony-Anhalt, shows an entirely different world of abandoned and
dilapidated buildings, boarded up storefronts and empty streets.
The German housing market is drifting in two opposing directions, as
is evident in a new study released Thursday by the Cologne Institute for
Economic Research. The study finds that demand for housing in major
cities and their surrounding areas will continue to rise, while the
shrinking of smaller cities and towns will become a "mass phenomenon,"
according to study author Michael Voigtländer.
The researchers calculated the housing needs per person in all
cities, towns and rural districts in Germany using two different
scenarios. One assumed that living space per person would rise while the
second presumed it would remain constant. In the past, per-capita
living space has risen along with standard of living and because more
people chose to live on their own.
Shrinking in the West
But regardless of which scenario turns out to be correct, the study
found that peak demand will have been reached by 2050. Even before that,
certain regions -- particularly in the eastern German states of
Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt -- will experience a shrinking housing
market. In the town Suhl in Thuringia, for example, demand for housing
could drop by 23 percent by 2030, making every fifth apartment
superfluous.
But towns in western Germany are also shrinking. In the small cities
of Salzgitter, in Lower Saxony, and Remscheid, in North
Rhine-Westphalia, demand could shrink by 17 and 14 percent respectively.
Several large cities, meanwhile, will see an increase in housing
demand, such as Munich (about 13.5 percent), Hamburg (7.1 percent),
Frankfurt (6.8 percent) and Berlin (6.4 percent). The highest expected
growth in demand is not for a particular city, but rather the area
surrounding Munich. According to the study, towns such as Erding (up
15.8 percent), Ebersberg (14.5 percent), Dachau (13.8 percent) and
Freising (13.6 percent), are expected to see the biggest rise in demand.
For less popular locations, the study indicates, massive change is
coming, including an increase in empty housing. This, warns Voigtländer,
is a societal problem. Empty buildings reduce the chances that
surrounding apartments can be rented and leads to vandalism and
dilapidation. The researchers involved in the study cite the US city of
Detroit as an example, where large swaths of the inner city have been
abandoned. Costs rise too, in such a scenario, because providing trash
pickup or sewage service to the entire city is being paid for by fewer
residents.
Targeted Development
The phenomenon is by no means new. Towns across rural Germany, particularly those in the eastern part of the country, but also in many areas in the west, havelong been experiencing falling populations
as younger residents head to cities for study and work. Many mid-sized
cities in Germany have long since begun doing what they can to get rid
of excess housing.
The study gives little cause for optimism. Even if people continue to
want more living space per capita, and even immigration brings 200,000
people a year to Germany, the trend will continue. Voigtländer
recommends that towns should accept the development. They should not
attempt to attract new residents with new commercial and residential
real estate, which could only worsen the situation. Instead, they should
focus on upgrading the existing apartments, he said.
The Institute is working with the Federal Environment Agency on a
wider solution, which would involve a national system of certification.
Similar to carbon emissions trading, that would make new development
land a valuable and tradable commodity, and would result in more
targeted development of new housing.
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